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Asian Economies in 2019

December 24, 2018

We collected below key comments on Asian economies for the year 2019:

 

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Regional Asia Outlook
 

“Overall per capita income in Asia still substantially lags that in the United States and Europe, but in growth terms, the region is very much at the forefront of the global economy, accounting for more than 60 percent of world growth and projected to grow at 5.6 percent in 2018 and 5.4 percent in 2019. There are signs, however, that the synchronized global recovery of the past few years is starting to fade, and risks to the Asian and global forecast are now tilted to the downside, reflecting increased financial market volatility, rising trade tensions, and slowing momentum in China.
Asia’s growth faces some fundamental challenges, but with continued proactive and sound policymaking, the region should have good prospects for staying at the forefront over the coming decade and beyond.”


source: IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Asia Pacific October 2018.
 
OECD Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India

 

“Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Emerging Asia (Southeast Asia, China and India) held up in 2018 despite external and domestic headwinds. In Southeast Asia, economic expansion rates remained robust in general, although the trends by country diverged somewhat. While China’s economic growth is gradually slowing, GDP growth in India is expected to remain robust.
As for the region’s private consumption story, resilience continued, underpinned by stability in labour markets and overseas transfers in some cases. Growth in gross exports likewise withstood trade policy uncertainties rather well. Fiscal positions in the region are generally stable.
GDP in Emerging Asia is estimated to grow by an annual average of 6.1% in 2019-2023. Domestic demand is expected to sustain its momentum, as job markets are expected to remain vibrant. However, trade is facing more uncertain prospects as tariff measures broaden. Southeast Asia is forecast to continue to grow solidly at 5.2% in 2019-23, faster than the rate posted in 2012-16. China is forecast to have an average growth of 5.9% in 2019-23, slower than its 2012-16 average of 7.3%.”

 

Source: OECD Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2019.
 
World Bank Regional Outlook East Asia and Pacific

 

“Growth in the region is forecast to ease from 6.3 percent in 2018 to 6.1 in 2019, reflecting a slowdown in China that is partly offset by a pickup in the rest of the region. Growth in China is anticipated to slow from 6.5 percent in 2018 to 6.3 percent in 2019 as policy support eases and as fiscal policies turn less accommodative. Excluding China, growth in the region is forecast to moderate from 5.4 percent in 2018 to 5.3 percent in 2019 as a cyclical economic recovery matures. Indonesia’s economy is expected to grow 5.2 percent rate this year and 5.3 percent the next. Growth in Thailand is expected accelerate to 4.1 percent in 2018, before moderating slightly to a 3.8 percent rate in 2019. For both commodity exporting and importing economies of the region, capacity constraints and price pressures are expected to intensify over the next two years, leading to tighter monetary policy in an increasing number of countries.”
 

Source: World Bank Regional Outlook East Asia and Pacific.

 

Asian Development Bank (ADB) Outlook on Developing Asian countries

 

“Despite challenges brought about by trade conflict, growth forecasts for developing Asia remain unchanged at 6.0% for 2018 and 5.8% for 2019, as envisaged in September in Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2018 Update. East Asia and the Pacific are on track to meet growth projections. Unexpectedly strong expansion in Central Asia offsets small downward revisions for South and Southeast Asia in 2019. Excluding the newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei, China, the regional growth outlook is maintained at 6.5% for 2018 and 6.3% for 2019.”

 

source: Asian Development Bank (ADB), Asian Development Outlook October 2018.

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