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China GDP +9.8% YoY Sep 2021

The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) released its latest data on October 18th about the general performance of the Chinese economy in the first three quarters of the year. Based on preliminary estimates, GDP reached RMB 82,313 billion (USD 12,790 billion) in the first nine months of the year, with an increase of 9.8% compared to the same period of 2020. By industry, the primary industry, with a share of 6% of total GDP, grew by 7.4%, while the secondary (39% of total GDP) and the tertiary industry went up by 10.6% and 9.5%, respectively.

On a quarterly basis, GDP in the third quarter of 2021 grew by 0.2% from the second quarter of 2021 and by 4.9% from the third quarter of 2020.

Despite the slowdown in the latest quarter, due to pandemic resurgence, the power shortage experienced in recent weeks, and real estate worries, China shall meet most of the growth target from the experts. According to the most recent estimate by the International Monetary Fund in its World Economic Outlook, the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 8% this year.

The comprehensive PMI index computed by NBS in September 2021 is 51.7%, up by 2.8 percentage points from August. Through surveys of enterprises purchasing managers, the PMI index can give a quick idea regarding the performance of the economy, with an overall expansion in case the index is above 50%, and recession if below 50%.

The growth of the national economy led to newly employed persons (+10.45% million in the first three quarters, around 95% of the yearly target). In September, the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, 0.2 percentage points lower than August 2021 and 0.5 percentage points lower than the same month in the previous year.

The living standard of individuals also increased in the first nine months, with the nationwide per capita disposable income up by 10.4% year-on-year at RMB 26,265, boosting internal consumption. Retail sales in September reached RMB 3,683 billion (+4.4% compared to the same month last year, and 7.8% higher than 2019) and RMB 31,805 billion on a yearly basis (+16.4% compared to Jan-Sep 2020).


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