World Bank Economic Update Asia Oct 2022
According to the latest data released by the World Bank in its economic outlook for the Asia-Pacific of October 2022, there will be a significant slowdown in the region in 2022, but growth will rebound in 2023. The downgraded forecast was driven primarily by China's strict zero-COVID rules that have impacted industrial production, domestic sales, and exports.
The report shows that the region's growth will slow to 3.2 percent, 1.8 percentage points in 2022 from April estimates before accelerating to 4.6 percent in 2023.
China, which constitutes 86 percent of the region's economic volume, is projected to grow 2.8 percent in 2022, significantly decelerating from the previous estimate of 5.0 percent, and 4.5 percent in 2023.
Meanwhile, the region's economies, excluding China, are projected to grow 5.3 percent in 2022, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous April forecast, while last year's growth was 2.6 percent. The growth in these countries has been driven by recovery in domestic demand and growth in exports, supported by a relaxation of COVID-related restrictions.
For the largest five ASEAN economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam), the growth is projected at 5.4 percent in 2022, 0.5 percentage points more than previously expected. Individually the projections are: Indonesia stable at 5.1 percent, Malaysia at 6.4 percent (up 0.9 percentage points), the Philippines at 6.5 percent (up 0.8 percentage points), Thailand at 3.1 percent (up 0.2 percentage points), and Vietnam at 7.2 percent (up 1.9 percentage points).