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ASEAN Economic Forecast

From an economic perspective, the aggregate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region exceeds USD 3.6 trillion, driven by one of the highest growth rates: 4.2 per cent in 2023 and 4.6 per cent in 2024 according to the estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The strategic importance of the Southeast Asian region is highlighted by its role in global supply chains, abundant natural resources, and trade agreements, while infrastructure development and connectivity initiatives increase its global relevance.

According to IMF data in the October outlook, there are variations in GDP trends for ASEAN countries, with Cambodia, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam showing the highest growth rates for the 2023-2024 biennium.

Brunei has the smallest economy in the region, experiencing a 0.8 per cent decline in 2023, with a significant recovery to 3.5 per cent in 2024, indicating a reversal of the trend. Phnom Penh records the best performance, with a GDP increase of 5.6 per cent in 2023 and a further rise of 6.1 per cent in 2024.

The Philippines forecast a variation of 5.3 per cent in 2023 and a further increase to 5.9 per cent in 2024, confirming the highest growth in the ASEAN-5 group of the five most populous and economically significant countries.

Indonesia and Laos maintain a steady trend, with Jakarta at +5 per cent for both 2023 and 2024, and Vientiane at 4 per cent for the biennium. Malaysia shows incremental data at 4 per cent in 2023 and 4.3 per cent for 2024.

For Myanmar, an increase of 2.6 per cent is estimated for both 2023 and 2024, while for Singapore, which has the highest per capita GDP, an expansion of 1 per cent and 2.1 per cent is projected for the biennium. Finally, the IMF predicts a gradual increase over the two years for Thailand, with growth rates of 2.7 per cent and 3.2 per cent, while Vietnam, among the large economies in the region, records the highest delta with GDP +4.7 per cent in 2023 and a projection of 5.8 per cent in 2024.


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