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Asian Outlook 2024

Southeast Asia's role in global supply chains, natural resources and trade agreements highlight the region's strategic importance, while infrastructure development and connectivity initiatives increase its global relevance.

The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) October outlook estimates that China is expected to grow at a rate of 5.4 per cent in 2023 and 4.6 per cent in 2024, with different gross domestic product trends for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries.

Brunei, the region's smallest economy, is expected to decline 0.8 per cent in 2023, followed by a significant recovery to 3.5 per cent in 2024.

Cambodia has the best performance, with a GDP increase of 5.6 per cent in 2023 and a further increase of 6.1 per cent in 2024.

The Philippines projects a change of 5.3 per cent in 2023 and a further increase to 5.9 per cent in 2024, confirming the highest growth in the ASEAN-5, a group of the five most populous and GDP-contributing countries.

Indonesia and Laos keep a steady trend, with Jakarta at +5 per cent for both 2023 and 2024 and Vientiane at +4 per cent over the two-year period. Malaysia shows incremental figures of 4 per cent for 2023 and 4.3 per cent for 2024.

Myanmar is expected to show a 2.6 per cent increase in both 2023 and 2024, while Singapore, with the highest GDP per capita, is expected to expand by 1 per cent and 2.1 per cent in the 2023 and 2024 respectively.

The IMF forecasts a gradual increase over the two-year period for Thailand, with growth rates of 2.7 per cent and 3.2 per cent.

Vietnam, among the region's major economies, has the highest delta with a GDP of +4.7 per cent in 2023 and a projection of 5.8 per cent in 2024.

ASEAN and Beijing exceed the global average, which stands at +3 per cent in 2023 and 2.9 per cent in the following year. Southeast Asia is China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling USD 826 billion in November 2023, surpassing Beijing's combined import and export volume recorded with the European Union (USD 716 billion) and the United States (USD 607 billion) in the first eleven months of the year.


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