China-Asia Trade and GDP Update

In April, several reports published on estimates for global trade and economic growth, from the World Trade Organization to the World Bank all estimates predict a slowdown caused by the conflict in Europe, the pandemic and pandemic containment measures.

Chinese customs confirmed on April 13 the data of Beijing's international trade for March 2022 with a reduced growth in exports of 14.5 percent compared to the first two months that had aggregate growth of 16.3 percent and imports in contraction -0.1 percent compared to the first two months (15.5 percent). This confirms the impact of the lockdown of Shanghai; the commercial capital of China represents not only the economic development of China but of the whole world; the lockdown of the municipality, also freezes Shanghai port, which manages the largest volume of trade globally.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) updated its estimates in April to forecast growth for Asia of 5.3 percent in 2022 down from 6.9 percent in 2021 and an estimated 5.3 percent in 2023, according to the latest ADB report that predicts an impact from the war in Ukraine. the increase in commodity prices, the Covid-19 variants that are widespread in the region and the increase in American interest rates.

Asian Development Bank forecasts that China, the region's largest economy, will grow by 5 percent in 2022 and 4.8 percent in 2023, while India is expected to grow by 7.5 percent in 2022.

The report predicts different performances in sub-regional areas, with the highest growth for South Asia with 7 percent, followed by Southeast Asia with 4.9 percent and East Asia with 4.7 percent.

The World Bank in its April outlook forecasts 2022 growth for East Asia and the Pacific, including China, at 5 percent in the baseline scenario but considers a slowdown to 4 percent possible if conditions weaken further.

In Southeast Asia, the countries in the region that will see the most growth in 2022 are the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia.