China's Macroeconomic Scenario 2023-2024

In 2023, China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.2 per cent. Despite a contracting manufacturing sector, goals for 2024 include 5 per cent GDP growth, creating 12 million jobs, and reforming the real estate sector, reflecting ongoing adjustments in its economic strategy.

In 2023, surpassing the 5 per cent target set by Beijing at the beginning of the year, China's GDP increased by 5.2 per cent. This figure can be analyzed across the individual quarters of 2023, with a +4.5 per cent increase in the first quarter, +6.2 per cent in Q2, +4.9 per cent during the July-September period, and a 5.2 per cent growth observed in the fourth quarter. A contraction in the manufacturing sector continues to be observed, with the PMI index falling below the 50 threshold; in 2023, fixed investments (spending on infrastructure, real estate, machinery, and equipment) grew by 3 per cent compared to 2022. The average urban unemployment rate for the year was 5 per cent, while the youth unemployment rate remained much higher, at 14.9 per cent.

For 2024, China has set a GDP growth target of around 5 per cent, while on the employment front, the goal is to create 12 million new jobs in urban areas, with the consequent containment of the urban unemployment rate around 5.5 per cent. Regarding inflation, China aims to anchor consumer price growth at about 3 per cent. There is also a clear intention to reform the real estate sector, which has long been considered a vital growth engine for the world's second-largest economy and represents about 30 per cent of the country's GDP, making it financially healthier and less indebted.