IMF Forecast January 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its World Economic Outlook, January 2026, projecting global growth of 3.3 per cent for 2026 and of 3.2 per cent for 2027.

The report notes that the global economy is adjusting to recent policy changes, even though fiscal and monetary assistance, supportive financial conditions and the adaptability of the private sector mitigate trade policy shifts. Activity in 2026 is influenced by factors such as reassessment of technological projections and the evolution of geopolitical dynamics.

Inflation is expected to continue declining globally, but it remains above target in the United States.

For advanced economies, growth is expected to average 1.8 per cent in 2026. Country-specific forecasts are: United States 2.4 per cent, Spain 2.3 per cent,  Canada 1.6 per cent, United Kingdom 1.3 per cent, Germany 1.1 per cent, France 1 per cent, Japan and Italy 0.7 per cent.

Among emerging market and developing economies, growth is expected to average 4.2 per cent in 2026, with China’s GDP forecast to expand by 4.5 per cent and India’s outlook revised up to 6.4 per cent. For the five largest ASEAN economies—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam—growth is projected at 4.2 per cent in 2026.