IMF Forecast July 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook for July 2025, confirming global growth of 3 per cent for 2025 and 3.1 per cent for 2026, an upward revision from the April 2025 Outlook. The revision was driven by improved economic activity ahead of new tariff agreements, lower effective tariff rates, better financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in several major economies.

For advanced economies, growth is expected to average 1.5 per cent in 2025. Country-specific forecasts are Spain 2.5 per cent, United States 1.9 per cent, Canada 1.6 per cent, United Kingdom 1.2 per cent, France 1.0 per cent, Japan 0.7 per cent, Italy 0.5 per cent, and Germany 0.1 per cent.

Among large emerging markets, China’s GDP is forecast to expand by 4.8 per cent in 2025, while India’s outlook has been revised to 6.4 per cent. For the five largest ASEAN economies—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam—growth in 2024 is projected at 4.1 per cent.