IMF Forecast October 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its World Economic Outlook, October 2025, projecting global growth of 3.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026.

The report notes that the global economy is adjusting to recent policy changes, with some tariff extremes eased through deals, but the overall environment remains volatile, and temporary factors that supported activity in early 2025, such as front-loading, are fading.

Inflation is projected to continue declining globally, though it remains above target in the United States and subdued elsewhere.

For advanced economies, growth is expected to average 1.6 per cent in 2025. Country-specific forecasts are: Spain 2.9 per cent, United States 2 per cent, United Kingdom 1.3 per cent, Canada 1.2 per cent, Japan 1.1 per cent, France 0.7 per cent, Italy 0.5 per cent, and Germany 0.2 per cent.

Among emerging market and developing economies, growth is expected to average 4 per cent in 2025, with China’s GDP forecast to expand by 4.8 per cent and India’s outlook revised up to 6.6 per cent. For the five largest ASEAN economies—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam—growth is projected at 4.2 per cent in 2025.