IMF Forecast April 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its April 2025 World Economic Outlook, revising its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8 per cent, down from the 3.3 per cent projected in the previous report.

This downward revision reflects increased global uncertainty, driven by geopolitical tensions and the introduction of new trade tariffs launched by US, both of which have weighed on the global economic outlook. Among the countries most affected were the United States and China, which experienced the most significant forecast downgrades.

The IMF also revised its inflation forecast for the advanced economies, projecting a rate of 2.5 per cent in 2025, 0.4 percentage point higher than the January estimate. While inflation is now expected to rise in major advanced economies, this increase is partly offset by downward revisions in some emerging market and developing economies.

Growth in advanced economies is estimated at 1.4 per cent in 2025; the United States economy is expected to slow to 1.8 per cent, 0.9 percentage points lower than the January forecast, while euro area growth was revised downward by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8 per cent. Projections for 2025 among other advanced economies have been revised as follows: Spain (2.5 per cent), Canada (1.4 per cent), United Kingdom (1.1 per cent), France (0.6 per cent), Japan (0.6 per cent), Italy (0.4 per cent), and Germany (no growth).

In emerging and developing Asia economies, growth is expected to be at 4.5 per cent in 2025, slower than the previous 5.1 per cent, with significant downgrades for countries most affected by recent trade measures. The IMF revised down China’s growth outlook for 2025 by 0.6 percentage points to 4 per cent. India saw its GDP growth reduced by 0.3 percentage points from the previous outlook, to 6.2 per cent, while for the five largest ASEAN economies, growth in 2025 is expected as follows: Indonesia (4.7 per cent), Vietnam (5.2 per cent), Malaysia (4.1 per cent), Singapore (2.0 per cent), and Thailand (1.8 per cent).