IMF Forecast July 2023

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook on July 25, 2023. The report forecasts global growth for 2023 at 3 per cent, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point from April estimates, before rising further to 3 per cent in 2024. IMF raised inflation estimates for 2023 by 1.7 percentage points compared to April prediction, to 6.8 per cent.

IMF increased the 2023 GDP forecast of the United States by 0.2 percentage points, from 1.6 per cent to 1.8 per cent. Other advanced economies see their growth improve: IMF revised the estimates for Italy (from 0.7 to 1.1 per cent), Spain (from 1.5 to 2.5 per cent), United Kingdom (from -0.3 to 0.4 per cent), France (from 0.7 to 0.8 percent), and Japan (from 1.3 to 1.4 per cent). The economies that experienced a downtrend in the forecast are Germany by 0.2 percentage points to -0.3 per cent.

The forecast for 2023 also has revisions among a few large emerging markets. The IMF confirms China's growth outlook for 2023 at 5.2 per cent, in line with the previous outlook. India saw its GDP growth revised up by 0.2 percentage points to 6.1 per cent.

For the largest five ASEAN economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam), growth is projected at 4.6 per cent in 2023.