top of page

China's GDP forecast 2021

The Chinese economy is growing steadily, and the domestic recovery remains resilient, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) vice-chairman Ning Jizhe.

Although Beijing has not included any average annual growth targets in its 2021-2025 economic plan, unlike the previous five-year plan issued in 2016, it has pledged to keep growth in a reasonable range over the five-year period, with 2021’s GDP target above 6 percent according to the Premier’s declaration.

The new Delta variant outbreak, which started July 2021 in Nanjing city and has since spread to several Chinese provinces, threatens to heap further downward pressure on the nation’s slowing retail spending.

According to the World Economic Outlook report of July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Chinese economy to grow 8.1% in 2021, with a revised reading down 0.3 percentage points from the previous April's forecast.

China's economic growth is projected to reach 8.5% this year, an upward revision by 0.6 percentage points from the previous report in January, according to an updated forecast published by the World Bank.

The chief economist of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said that China is the main driver of Asia's economic recovery, and the ADB predicts that China's growth rate will rebound to 8.1% in 2021, a positive change of 0.4 percentage points compared to the forecasts of last December.

Goldman Sachs analysts forecast China's GDP to grow by 8.3% in 2021.

The Chinese economy will rise by 8.2% in 2021, according to Nomura Holdings Inc., a downward revision by 0.7 percentage points from previous estimates.

JPMorgan's new projections see China’s GDP increase by 8.9% in 2021, down 0.2 percentage points from their previous estimates.

Morgan Stanley adjusted its full-year GDP growth forecast for China to 8.3%, compared to the previous 8.6%.


Recent articles
bottom of page